Brits can't take much more of this ๐Ÿคฌ

PLUS: Canadians VS BoC - Who will break first? ๐Ÿ‘€

June 22nd is national kissing day. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘„๐Ÿ‘

Donโ€™t have a girl? No sweat.

Kiss your dog!

Donโ€™t have a dog? Red flag. ๐Ÿšฉ

Only have a minute? โฑ

Key Takeaways:

  • UK: Inflation in the UK is stuck at 8.7% for the second month in a row. That decline we were expecting is nowhere to be seen. ๐Ÿ‘€

    • Experts were predicting that the rate would increase from 4.5% to 4.75% even with a decline in inflation. Without one? We might see the rate go as high as 5% tomorrow. ๐Ÿคฏ

  • Canada: Canadian retail sales increased 1.1% instead of the 0.2% forecast. Canada is now leading most countries in retail sales. ๐Ÿ”

    • This big shopping spree is going to cost them. There is now a 75% chance the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points in July. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • EU & Germany: Weโ€™ve got three different scores to watch out for tomorrow and weโ€™re no longer talking about hockey. ๐Ÿ’

    • First, the German HCOB composite PMI. Last month, the score was above 50 at 53.9. Tomorrow, weโ€™re looking at a score of 53.5. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป

    • Then, the German HCOB manufacturing PMI: A small increase expected in June from last monthโ€™s numbers but still below 50.

      • 43.2 to 43.5. Expect EURUSD โ†“

    • Finally, the Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI: May gave us a score of 52.8 and June is predicted to come in at 52.5.

      Anything above 50 is a win! ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿผ

  • UK: The Services PMI will tell us how the UK service sector is doing this month. Last month, they delivered a score of 55.2. The estimate for June is a score of 54.8. Expect GBPUSD โ†‘

False hopes & high prices: Can it get any worse? ๐Ÿ˜ฐ

That CPI drop from March to April really gave us some false hope, huh?

Inflation in the UK is stuck at 8.7% for the second month in a row. That decline we were expecting is nowhere to be seen. ๐Ÿ‘€

With the BoE making their interest rate decision tomorrow, this is not good news for anyone hoping we might see a rate cut or pause. ๐Ÿ˜ฌ

Experts were predicting that the rate would increase from 4.5% to 4.75% even with a decline in inflation. Without one?

We might see the rate go as high as 5% tomorrow. ๐Ÿคฏ

I know the goal with hiking interest rates is to drive prices downโ€ฆ but is the BoE noticing that now all weโ€™ve got is high rates AND high prices? SOS!

Big spenders VS BoC: Who will break first? ๐Ÿ‘€

Well this is certainly not what the Bank of Canada was hoping for..

Canadian retail sales increased 1.1% instead of the 0.2% forecast. Canada is now leading most countries in retail sales. ๐Ÿ”

The BoC has been raising interest rates in attempt to do the same as most other central banks: slow demand to bring inflation down.

But Canadians are too busy shopping to notice. ๐Ÿค‘

Grocery stores, furniture stores, department stores and car dealerships were all flooded with shoppers looking to spend some cash. And boy did they ever.

Canadians spent a total of $65.9 BILLION in April. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

This big shopping spree is going to cost them. There is now a 75% chance the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points in July.

The fight continues. ๐Ÿ›๐Ÿคบ

Powell takes the stand ๐ŸŽค

What did he have to say about the US economy?

Take a look:

And follow our Insta while youโ€™re at it. ๐Ÿ˜›

Trade Of The Day ๐Ÿ“ˆ

GBPUSD

June 21, 2023 - 02:00 EST - CPI news

Friday News

It might be an early Friday morning but the week is almost over! ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป

Hereโ€™s what youโ€™re in for:
(All times in EST)

  • 03:30 & 04:00 โ€” Germany is a big player in an even bigger game ๐Ÿคพ๐Ÿผโ€โ™‚๏ธ

    • Event: Germany HCOB Composite PMI(Jun), Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Jun), Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI(Jun)

    • Major pairs to watch: EURUSD

  • 04:30 โ€” UK Service sector serving us some good news? ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ

    • Event: S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Jun)

    • Major pairs to watch: GBPUSD

Germany is a big player in an even bigger game ๐Ÿคพ๐Ÿผโ€โ™‚๏ธ

Weโ€™ve got three different scores to watch out for tomorrow and weโ€™re no longer talking about hockey. ๐Ÿ’

First, the German HCOB composite PMI. Letโ€™s break that down:

This report tells us about how manufacturing and services companies are doing in Germany. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช

Basically companies will answer some questions, with bigger companies having more impact on the results.

The score tells us if companies think things got better, worse or stayed the same since last month.

A number over 50 means it got better and a number under 50 means it got worse.

Last month, the score was above 50 at 53.9. Tomorrow, weโ€™re expecting a score of 53.5. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป

Then, the German HCOB manufacturing PMI:

This report is similar. It just tells us how things are going specifically in the manufacturing sector. ๐Ÿ‘ท๐Ÿฝโ€โ™€๏ธ

Manufacturing makes up a huge part of German GDP so this score gives us a good idea of how Germanyโ€™s economy is doing overall.

Weโ€™ll get to see their opinion on stuff like production, new orders, employment levels and delivery times. ๐Ÿš›

Above 50, things are looking good. Below 50, not so good.

A small increase expected in June from last monthโ€™s numbers but still below 50.

43.2 to 43.5. Expect EURUSD โ†“

Why are Germanyโ€™s scores so important?

Germany is kind of a big deal.

They have the fourth largest economy in the world and their performance has a significant impact on Europeโ€™s GDP. So, we keep a close eye on their scores.

Finally, the Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI:

The exact same report as the first one we talked about but instead of just looking at Germany, weโ€™re looking at the European Union (EU) as a whole.

May gave us a score of 52.8 and June is predicted to come in at 52.5.

Anything above 50.0 is a win! ๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿผ

UK Service sector serving us some good news? ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ

The Services PMI will tell us how the UK service sector is doing this month.

How? A survey is given to a bunch of companies in the UK service sector. ๐Ÿ™‹๐Ÿป

Why? Because the service sector makes up more than 75% of the GDP in the UK. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

A high score (above 50) means more consumer spending and more jobs in the service sector. This strengthens the value of the GBP. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‘†๐Ÿผ

And of course a low score (below 50) means less spending and less jobs weakening the value of the GBP.๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ

Last month, they delivered a score of 55.2. The estimate for June is a score of 54.8. Expect GBP/USD โ†‘.

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Technical Tip

Are you overtrading? Here are three tips to help you quit!

  1. Wait 15-20 minutes after a loss before you trade again. โฑ

  2. Include a โ€˜number of trades per dayโ€™ section in your trading plan. Do not go over this number. โŒ

  3. Stop trading after three consecutive losses. ๐Ÿ›‘