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- Brits can't take much more of this ๐คฌ
Brits can't take much more of this ๐คฌ
PLUS: Canadians VS BoC - Who will break first? ๐
June 22nd is national kissing day. ๐๐๐
Donโt have a girl? No sweat.
Kiss your dog!
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c559c433-4260-4d94-87b1-69e7dd87226a/giphy.gif)
Donโt have a dog? Red flag. ๐ฉ
Only have a minute? โฑ
Key Takeaways:
UK: Inflation in the UK is stuck at 8.7% for the second month in a row. That decline we were expecting is nowhere to be seen. ๐
Experts were predicting that the rate would increase from 4.5% to 4.75% even with a decline in inflation. Without one? We might see the rate go as high as 5% tomorrow. ๐คฏ
Canada: Canadian retail sales increased 1.1% instead of the 0.2% forecast. Canada is now leading most countries in retail sales. ๐
This big shopping spree is going to cost them. There is now a 75% chance the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points in July. ๐
EU & Germany: Weโve got three different scores to watch out for tomorrow and weโre no longer talking about hockey. ๐
First, the German HCOB composite PMI. Last month, the score was above 50 at 53.9. Tomorrow, weโre looking at a score of 53.5. ๐๐ป
Then, the German HCOB manufacturing PMI: A small increase expected in June from last monthโs numbers but still below 50.
43.2 to 43.5. Expect EURUSD โ
Finally, the Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI: May gave us a score of 52.8 and June is predicted to come in at 52.5.
Anything above 50 is a win! ๐๐ผ
UK: The Services PMI will tell us how the UK service sector is doing this month. Last month, they delivered a score of 55.2. The estimate for June is a score of 54.8. Expect GBPUSD โ
False hopes & high prices: Can it get any worse? ๐ฐ
That CPI drop from March to April really gave us some false hope, huh?
Inflation in the UK is stuck at 8.7% for the second month in a row. That decline we were expecting is nowhere to be seen. ๐
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6547af7b-6ff9-4105-a3b0-a294b468a06e/January__3_.png)
With the BoE making their interest rate decision tomorrow, this is not good news for anyone hoping we might see a rate cut or pause. ๐ฌ
Experts were predicting that the rate would increase from 4.5% to 4.75% even with a decline in inflation. Without one?
We might see the rate go as high as 5% tomorrow. ๐คฏ
I know the goal with hiking interest rates is to drive prices downโฆ but is the BoE noticing that now all weโve got is high rates AND high prices? SOS!
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b1379fbc-2b66-4fc7-9716-07a2633c14b5/giphy.gif)
Big spenders VS BoC: Who will break first? ๐
Well this is certainly not what the Bank of Canada was hoping for..
Canadian retail sales increased 1.1% instead of the 0.2% forecast. Canada is now leading most countries in retail sales. ๐
The BoC has been raising interest rates in attempt to do the same as most other central banks: slow demand to bring inflation down.
But Canadians are too busy shopping to notice. ๐ค
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f7dd29b3-414d-4d82-9237-4984fdf77645/image.png)
Grocery stores, furniture stores, department stores and car dealerships were all flooded with shoppers looking to spend some cash. And boy did they ever.
Canadians spent a total of $65.9 BILLION in April. ๐ฎ
This big shopping spree is going to cost them. There is now a 75% chance the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by at least 25 basis points in July.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fde9be58-60e3-4b36-b7da-11a58dde9f9a/giphy.gif)
The fight continues. ๐๐คบ
Powell takes the stand ๐ค
What did he have to say about the US economy?
Take a look:
And follow our Insta while youโre at it. ๐
Trade Of The Day ๐
GBPUSD
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d45d5235-18b3-42a1-a372-e4185c4193c8/Screen_Shot_2023-06-21_at_2.48.28_PM.png)
June 21, 2023 - 02:00 EST - CPI news
Friday News
It might be an early Friday morning but the week is almost over! ๐๐ป
Hereโs what youโre in for:
(All times in EST)
03:30 & 04:00 โ Germany is a big player in an even bigger game ๐คพ๐ผโโ๏ธ
Event: Germany HCOB Composite PMI(Jun), Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Jun), Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI(Jun)
Major pairs to watch: EURUSD
04:30 โ UK Service sector serving us some good news? ๐๐ผ
Event: S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI(Jun)
Major pairs to watch: GBPUSD
Germany is a big player in an even bigger game ๐คพ๐ผโโ๏ธ
Weโve got three different scores to watch out for tomorrow and weโre no longer talking about hockey. ๐
First, the German HCOB composite PMI. Letโs break that down:
This report tells us about how manufacturing and services companies are doing in Germany. ๐ฉ๐ช
Basically companies will answer some questions, with bigger companies having more impact on the results.
The score tells us if companies think things got better, worse or stayed the same since last month.
A number over 50 means it got better and a number under 50 means it got worse.
Last month, the score was above 50 at 53.9. Tomorrow, weโre expecting a score of 53.5. ๐๐ป
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/031b5e85-1ff9-487c-8e2c-4451e9524612/giphy.gif)
Then, the German HCOB manufacturing PMI:
This report is similar. It just tells us how things are going specifically in the manufacturing sector. ๐ท๐ฝโโ๏ธ
Manufacturing makes up a huge part of German GDP so this score gives us a good idea of how Germanyโs economy is doing overall.
Weโll get to see their opinion on stuff like production, new orders, employment levels and delivery times. ๐
Above 50, things are looking good. Below 50, not so good.
A small increase expected in June from last monthโs numbers but still below 50.
43.2 to 43.5. Expect EURUSD โ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/11bd44f0-5ba9-410a-b2a9-5d2161b24b2b/giphy.gif)
Why are Germanyโs scores so important?
Germany is kind of a big deal.
They have the fourth largest economy in the world and their performance has a significant impact on Europeโs GDP. So, we keep a close eye on their scores.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bd440c67-509b-481b-84a7-9c1009bd624a/image.png)
Finally, the Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI:
The exact same report as the first one we talked about but instead of just looking at Germany, weโre looking at the European Union (EU) as a whole.
May gave us a score of 52.8 and June is predicted to come in at 52.5.
Anything above 50.0 is a win! ๐๐ผ
UK Service sector serving us some good news? ๐๐ผ
The Services PMI will tell us how the UK service sector is doing this month.
How? A survey is given to a bunch of companies in the UK service sector. ๐๐ป
Why? Because the service sector makes up more than 75% of the GDP in the UK. ๐ฎ
A high score (above 50) means more consumer spending and more jobs in the service sector. This strengthens the value of the GBP. ๐ฌ๐ง๐๐ผ
And of course a low score (below 50) means less spending and less jobs weakening the value of the GBP.๐ฌ๐ง๐๐ผ
Last month, they delivered a score of 55.2. The estimate for June is a score of 54.8. Expect GBP/USD โ.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/63dde0a9-c718-4f57-acf2-242fd9c7be3c/giphy.gif)
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Technical Tip
Are you overtrading? Here are three tips to help you quit!
Wait 15-20 minutes after a loss before you trade again. โฑ
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Stop trading after three consecutive losses. ๐